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future if needs be.
The mobilisation has far reaching political consequences as an estimated one million Russians have fled the country, including around one in four IT professionals that will also have long-term consequences on Russia’s development. At the same time, at the start of mobilisation, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said that conscription would be limited to 300,000 men, but more recent reports estimate that as many as onemn have been called up. Economists are worried about what this will do to labour markets and productivity, as the economy was already hobbled by sanctions. But one side effect is that unemployment remains at record post-Soviet lows.
Conscription has stabilised the front line and Ukraine’s counter offensive has slowed leaving most of the Donbas in Russia’s hands. On October 10 the Kremlin launched its own counteroffensive that boils down to destroying Ukraine’s power infrastructure just head of winter. Ukraine’s air defence have vastly improved but with a flock of 1,700 Iranian Shahed 136 “kamikaze” drones at its disposal enough at getting through to cause devastating damage – and even more powerful Iranian ballistic missiles area expected to arrive soon. Russian President Vladimir Putin has regained the initiative in the war, which increasingly looks like it will drag on all winter and probably longer.
The Ministry of Finance (MinFin) has already put the economy on war footing, making spending cuts and raising taxes. Putin added that by imposing martial law in the annexed regions, but sneaked in similar powers to regional governors in the European part of Russia in a move to bolster his grip on the country.
The next dramatic event on the calendar will be the West’s attempt to impose gas and oil price caps on Russia’s exports ahead of the December 5 ban on buying Russian oil. There are a growing number of reports that Russia has been putting together a large “shadow flotilla” of tankers to dodge these sanctions which currently look like they will fail.
8 RUSSIA Country Report November 2022 www.intellinews.com