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restored, there is active reform and reconstruction in Ukraine, and with an influx of investment.
Every 100,000 refugees reduce Ukraine's GDP by $1B. Considering that Ukraine's pre-war 2021 GDP was almost $200B, the forced emigration of every 100,000 Ukrainians due to the Russian invasion has caused a decrease in Ukraine's annual GDP by about $1B, writes the WSJ. As the publication notes, as a result of the full-scale invasion, nearly eight million people left Ukraine, and most of them hoped that this emigration would be short-lived. However, according to the UN, about 6.2 million Ukrainians remain abroad, indicating that only about 1.8 million have returned to their Motherland. It is also reported that a survey conducted by the UN International Organization for Migration in May-June 2023 showed that about a million Ukrainians who had been abroad returned to their place of origin for a visit or permanent residence. Another 353,000 people returned from abroad but remain displaced within Ukraine.
3.2 Macro outlook
The NBU expects Ukraine's GDP to grow by 2.9% this year and notes the positive impact of military aid to Ukraine on the economy of Western countries. As noted in the July National Bank Inflation Report, economic growth will accelerate in the coming years, considering the National Bank's assumption that security risks will decrease in mid-2024. The NBU forecasts real GDP growth in 2024 of 3.5% and in 2025 of 6.8%. According to the forecast, consumer inflation will slow to 10.6% in 2023, and core inflation will be below 9%. In 2024, consumer inflation will decrease to 8.5%, and core inflation will drop to 7%. In 2025, it will be 5% ± 1%, and the base rate will be 3%. The regulator also claims that the increase in military spending due to the war in Ukraine has stimulated the GDP of partner countries. Every $1 spent
22 UKRAINE Country Report September 2023 www.intellinews.com