Page 13 - Turkey Outlook 2025

18, 2024. A record $1.82 trillion was registered on July 29, 2022.
The yield on 10-year US Treasury papers tested the 5.0% level in October 2023. Since then, it has only seen the 3.60%s at the lowest in September 2024. It stood at 4.52% on December 20, 2024.
The figure is supposed to decline with rate cuts in 2025.
Since November 2022, the US dollar index (DXY) has been moving in a range between the 100 and 110 levels.
Since Donald Trump’s early November victory at the presidential elections, the index has moved up through the upper limit of the range. It stood at 108 on December 20.
Thirty-year mortgage rates in the US tested the 8% level in October 2023 before falling to below the 6.6% level at end-2023. The figure stood at 6.7% on December 19, 2024.
The US yield curve, meanwhile, turned to normal. No recession is expected.
The Fed governors see 2.5% GDP growth in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025.
A GDP growth figure of 3.1% y/y was released for Q3 following 1.6% for
Q1 and 3% for Q2.
Donald Trump is getting ready to impose some trade tariffs. He also has a habit of pressuring the Fed to pump in more and more liquidity that boosts the prices of assets held by his voter base.
European Central Bank
The European Central Bank (ECB) launched its rate-cutting cycle in June. It brought its deposit facility rate to 3.00% by December from 4.00% in June.
The authority took its deposit facility rate from minus 0.50% in July 2022
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