Page 14 - Turkey Outlook 2025

to 4% in September 2023.
On January 30, 2025, the authority is expected to deliver another 25bp cut at its next rate-setting meeting.
Inflation in the Euro Area saw a record high of 10.7% y/y in October 2022 before gradually declining to 9.2% at end-2022, 2.9% at end-2023 and 2.2% in November 2024.
The ECB also targets a 2% inflation rate. It is already near its target, but it has bigger troubles with GDP growth.
The ECB is expected to deliver more aggressive rate cuts compared to the Fed in 2025.
The USD/EUR rate lay in the 0.95s in September 2022. Between December 2022 and October 2024 it moved in a range between 1.05 and 1.10.
With Trump’s victory, it gradually declined to 1.03s by December 18 from the 1.12s in September.
Commodities
After hitting a record high level of 159.7 in March 2022, the FAO food price index gradually declined to 145 points at end-2022 and 119 at end-2023.
The index rose to 128 in November 2024, up 6% y/y.
As of December 22, Brent oil was down 8% y/y to $73. It tested the $140-level in March 2022. Since end-2022, it has moved in a range between $70 and $90.
The Dutch TTF 1-month Natural Gas Futures contract was up by 28% y/y to €44/MWh ($488 per 1,000 cubic metres) (it tested $4,000 in March 2022).
The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) was down by 2% y/y at 98 on December 20, 2024. It recorded 138 in June 2022.
The USD/Turkish lira (TRY) pair was up 21% y/y to 35.16 on December 20.
14 Turkey Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com