Page 7 - Turkey Outlook 2025

No elections before 2026?
At present, no elections are scheduled until March 2028. That reduces the pressure on policymakers to agree to backward-indexed wage increases for 2025 and 2026, noted S&P Global Ratings.
Support within the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) to revise the constitution introduced in 2017 could eventually bring the general election forward, but not to a date before 2026, in S&P’s view.
Some deputies within the senior party of the current AKP and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) governing coalition are calling for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to serve a fourth term.
Under the 2017 constitution, the president, who is both the head of state and the head of government, cannot serve more than two consecutive five-year terms in full. But by cutting short Erdogan’s current term, the president would be eligible to run for a third term, S&P also observed.
Running for a third term would require the support of 360 out of the 600 members of parliament. That is 40 more than the number of members of parliament in the governing coalition.
Main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) chair Ozgur Ozel, dubbed the “minister of opposition” by critics in Turkey, is ready to provide the required support to hold a snap election.
A referendum on a constitutional amendment that would scrap the “50% plus one vote” rule on declaring a victory in the first round of the presidential election is also on the cards.
Foreign policy
Major players of the international stage, ranging from the US to China, remain part of a global consensus supporting a continuation of the Erdogan regime. Don’t let any noise fool you.
The orange man is back
It will be a colourful four years with Donald Trump. We can hope that these years will be less bloody compared to the past four years.
Where the orange man is concerned, both bloodier and less bloody are possible. He can either end or blow on the hot coals of the fighting in the ongoing wars in Ukraine and around Israel.
When it comes to the economy, Trump is definitely inflationary. He has
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