Page 5 - Turkey Outlook 2025

with its new plot of land.
The Erdogan regime, some may declare, will rebuild the country just as it has rebuilt the Turkish provinces that were hit by the catastrophic earthquakes in February 2023. On close inspection, however, the observer sees that the quake-levelled provinces, still burdened by temporary “container” encampments, are in no way rebuilt and the Syria rebuilding may turn out to be more pure fantasy.
The reality is that Turkey has dived deeper into difficulties. It has earned itself even bigger insoluble problems.
Kurds
After conquering Damascus, the Erdogan regime is currently pushing to attack the Kurds that are in control of the northeastern part of Syria.
So far, the US has not allowed such an offensive.
After Trump takes office on January 20, the Erdogan regime may find itself in a position that makes it necessary to recognise the de facto Kurdish regional government in Syria just as it recognised the Kurdish regional government (KRG) in Iraq.
Erdogan officials have, meanwhile, been holding talks with Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan, who remains imprisoned on a Turkish island.
It is not clear whether some serious matters are under discussion or whether some meaningful results can be achieved. The discussions could be related to the developments in Syria.
“Competitive authoritarianism”
Turkey’s regime refrains from claiming massive “80%” victories in elections (something the Putin regime is known for) since Ankara is dependent on external borrowing. It cannot escape the constant need to source plenty of dollars.
Thus the Erdogan henchmen stage some theatre (the observer, for instance, can expect a “49%” victory in the first presidential voting round and a “52%” triumph in the second round) that, from space, can be said to resemble “competitive authoritarianism”.
His Majesty’s Opposition
The state of the opposition within Turkey remains farcical. It should be reiterated that there is no place in this political theatre for anyone that poses a real threat to the regime (for instance, “star” prisoners
5 Turkey Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com