Page 71 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine December 2023

bne December 2023
Opinion 71
The European Parliament, in a resolution adopted on October 5, condemned Azerbaijan's military aggression against Nagorno-Karabakh and called on the EU leadership to impose sanctions on Azerbaijani officials who are responsible for
the ceasefire violation in Nagorno-Karabakh and numerous abuses of human rights. The European Commission was urged to refuse the purchase of gas from Azerbaijan if it takes military steps against Armenia. Parliaments of individual European countries also adopted resolutions condemning Azerbaijan.
The US State Department announced on October 15, that it strongly supports Armenia's sovereignty and territorial integrity. "We emphasised that any violation of that sovereignty and territorial integrity will lead to serious consequences," it said. In short, the West drew a red line before Aliyev, forbidding any military aggression against Armenia.
Avoidance strategy
These developments made Aliyev realise that he would not succeed in Brussels, but on the contrary, would be told to recognise the territorial integrity of Armenia with an area of 29,800 square kilometers.
This would deprive Baku of the chance to create a narrative to carry out new military attacks against Armenia, using as an excuse, for example, the eight villages under Armenian occupation. The West has forbidden Azerbaijan to attack Armenia and re-occupy the "eight villages or three enclaves".
Aliyev avoided meeting the European interlocutors. Furthermore, he exploited the fact that Armenia had recognised Nagorno-Karabakh as a territory of Azerbaijan in the previous negotiations under the EU format. He declared that this is a basis for extending his sovereignty over Karabakh through a military operation. He no longer has anything to gain from the Western format, and is therefore boycotting it.
Why is the Russian format preferable for Azerbaijan? Azerbaijan cannot demand in Brussels that Armenia provide it and Russia with the "Zangezur Corridor" through Armenian territory to its exclave of Nakhitchevan, but it can do this in Moscow.
At the meeting held in Brussels on May 14, Azerbaijan had agreed that Armenia and Azerbaijan should seek the help
of the World Customs Organisation to restore railway and transport connections. This implies the approval of Armenia's sovereignty and jurisdiction over roads in its territory. The West considers the topic of the Zangezur Corridor closed.
Meanwhile, Russia is interested in creating a Zangezur Corridor outside of Armenia's customs, border, and security controls, which it will control with Russian Security Forces.
Unlike the United States and the European Union, Moscow also turns a blind eye to Aliyev carrying out military attacks
against Armenia. During the Azerbaijani attacks, Russia refused to fulfill its security obligations towards Armenia, causing a security vacuum. This is a lever of pressure against the Armenian government so that it is forced to cede the Zangezur Corridor to Baku and Moscow. This scheme has been used for three years now.
Another military aggression of Azerbaijan against Armenia would be an excellent opportunity for Russia to finally deploy Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) peacekeepers on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. The Kremlin announced the plan to deploy the CSTO in Armenia in autumn 2022, when Yerevan decided to deploy an EU observation mission on its territory.
Therefore Putin and Aliyev invited Pashinyan to Moscow to negotiate. It is unlikely that Yerevan will accept this offer. Yerevan realises that Russia is not a mediator, but a party
to the conflict. Russia does not want to establish real peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, unlike the US and the EU. If Armenians and Azerbaijanis stop killing each other, who would the Russians "save"? Russian troups would be removed from the South Caucasus.
Georgia could be an interesting option, but Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili can at most offer Aliyev and Pashinyan
a good hotel, delicious food, and a sincere wish not to go to war and reconcile. Georgia cannot present a political plan
to resolve the 35-year-old Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Georgia has no leverage on the parties for the implementation of the agreement. If the Tbilisi meeting takes place, it will actually be an Armenian-Azerbaijani bilateral format.
Position of strength
Azerbaijan offers the formats of Moscow and Tbilisi to Armenia in order to exclude the US and the EU from the negotiation process. The absence of the West would be dangerous for Armenia, because Azerbaijan will continue to speak from a position of strength. Armenia has not yet managed to restore the military balance.
It will not sign a bilateral peace agreement with Azerbaijan in Georgia and participate in the Russian-Turkish-Azerbaijani plan to push the US and the EU out of the region. If it did, Yerevan will lose the support of the West.
Yet Aliyev could still lose in the "Great Game" he started. Despite the support of Turkey and Russia, Azerbaijan is a weak link for the US and the EU. The West can apply sanctions against Azerbaijan, imposing embargoes on the sale of Azerbaijani oil and gas, and the purchase of arms.
France, one of the leading states of Nato, will start supplying weapons to Armenia and will support the reforms of its armed forces. America's ally India is preparing to deliver a new batch of weapons to Armenia. Armenia has security cooperation with three other Western countries.
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