Page 64 - bne IntelliNews Russia OUTLOOK 2025

development marks another milestone in the integration of Bolivia’s mineral resources into China’s battery production supply chains.
The US and UK bans on Russian metals imports may enhance the role of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) in setting international benchmarks and promoting yuan-denominated metals trading. As the London Metal Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are barred from accepting Russian metals, SHFE remains the only major exchange accessible. This is a significant loss for London, which, as of April 2024, held substantial Russian-origin stocks: 50% of copper, 33% of nickel and 89% of primary aluminium.
While London and Washington have refrained from directly sanctioning Russia’s main metals producers, sanctions are possible in 2025 and could limit further integration of China and Russia’s metals supply chains, as Chinese firms would fear Western secondary sanctions.
5.9 Aviation
Russia’s aviation has been amongst the sectors hardest hit by sanctions. In 2024, the state-owned United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) managed to build only seven out of a planned 108 new planes and has turned to cannibalisation of parts to keep its existing fleet in the air.
But it saw a partial recovery in 2024. Russian state air carrier Aeroflot Group increased its passenger traffic by 16.8% y/y in 2024 to 55.3mn people, out of which 12.7mn passengers were on international routes (up 32.7% y/y).
Russia is almost totally dependent on imported components, creating supply chain disruptions that have paralysed the nation’s aircraft manufacturing capabilities. Efforts to pivot towards domestic production under the “Comprehensive Programme for the Development of the Air Transport Industry until 2030” have so far fallen short.
Russia’s ambitious programme envisioned the production of 1,032 passenger aircraft by 2030, starting with 14 planes in 2022, 25 in 2023 and 69 in 2024. However, “the plan was revised and postponed almost immediately due to lack of supplies,” the BBC reports, citing industry sources.
Instead, the UAC – part of Rostec, Russia’s sprawling state-owned conglomerate – has delivered only seven SuperJet 100 airliners since the sanctions came into effect, relying on pre-2022 stockpiles of parts.
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