Page 65 - bne IntelliNews Russia OUTLOOK 2025

Additionally, two experimental aircraft, the Il-96-400M and Il-114, were completed for testing purposes.
The supply chain crisis extends beyond manufacturers, threatening the survival of airlines reliant on foreign-made planes. Domestic carriers face mounting difficulties, with 30 airlines – representing 26% of the domestic passenger market – at risk of bankruptcy by 2025, Russian newspaper Izvestiya reports.
Meanwhile, only the largest airlines, including Aeroflot, Ural Airlines and S7 Airlines, have managed to stabilise operations, using funds from the National Welfare Fund to buy back leased aircraft.
The EU ban on Russian overflights and an end to direct flights between Russia and most Western capitals has been a boon for Aeroflot, which has seen traffic numbers soar as Russians look for new holiday destinations, many of them in Latin America and Asia. Internal flights have also benefited as domestic tourism has surged as a more affordable option to long international flights. However, the maintenance of Russia’s fleet of internationally made planes is becoming a major problem.
The share of Russian state carrier Aeroflot in the total passenger turnover in 10M24 continued to rise and reached 49.4%, according to RosAviatsia aviation agency data cited by Interfax. In 10M24 overall, total passenger traffic reached 95.7mn passengers.
As noted previously by bne IntelliNews, Aeroflot is benefitting disproportionally from the state support for the aviation segment, and is expected to consolidate its market share. The state carrier has already started to take over the fleet of small players such as iFly charter carrier.
Overall Russian airlines' passenger traffic in October 2024 increased by 6.5% year on year to 9.5mn passengers. Domestic flights carried 7mn passengers (+2% y/y), while international flights carried 2.5mn passengers (+21.5% y/y). Aeroflot in October carried 3.6mn passengers on domestic routes (+10.3% y/y) and 1.2mn passengers on international routes (+27.4% y/y).
As reported by bne IntelliNews, Aeroflot raised its passenger turnover guidance for 2024 from 53mn people previously to 55mn, which would make 16.3% y/y growth.
To remind, since 2022 Russian airlines have been in disarray following the sanctions for the Russian military invasion of Ukraine, facing
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