Page 79 - bne IntelliNews Russia OUTLOOK 2025

The amount of idle oil refining capacity grew by 34.4% in November. The amount of primary processing during January-November reached 39.6mn tonnes, which is 5.8mn tonnes (+17%) higher than last year's figure. Moreover, one of Russia's largest refineries, Nizhnyohrodnaftorgsintez, was forced to cease production due to the breakdown of Western equipment.
Russia’s shadow fleet of 430+ tankers allows it to evade the price cap for a large share of its oil exports. In August 2024, close to 90% of seaborne crude oil was transported without involvement of G7/EU services. For this portion, Russia is currently able to realise an average price that lies $10/barrel above the cap.
A total 74 shadow fleet tankers have been sanctioned by the United States, European Union and United Kingdom. Around 70% of vessels have been removed from commercial operations as entities in third countries fear involvement.
7.2 Gas production and transport
Despite the efforts to wean the EU off Russian gas it imported nearly €12bn worth of gas – both as piped gas and LNG – in the first ten months of 2024.
In the first quarter of 2022, the share of Russian supplies was 34% and was the largest among all suppliers (Norway was in second place with 25%) and in the second quarter of 2023, Russian gas accounted for only 14% of imported fuel. However, in the first quarter of 2024, the share of Russian gas increased to 19%.
Regarding the supply volume to Europe, Russia is only behind Norway (34%) and the US (20%). Most Russian gas comes through pipelines that cross Ukraine and Turkey. Among the largest buyers are Austria, Slovakia and Hungary. Spain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands import Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) by tanker. Some of it is mixed with gas from other sources in the European pipeline network, potentially reaching Germany, despite its pledge to avoid Russian gas.
Russia remained among the European Union’s main LNG suppliers in October, delivering LNG worth €701.5mn in the reported period, according to the Eurostat statistical agency and TASS calculations. LNG imports from Russia in value terms were the highest since November 2023.
According to the statistics, Russia remained among the European Union’s key gas suppliers in terms of value, accounting for 21.2%,
79 Russia OUTLOOK 2025 www.intellinews.com