Page 81 - bne IntelliNews Russia OUTLOOK 2025

experts say.
At the same time, Europe is expecting the coldest winter since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. Temperatures will be lower than in the two previous years, and gas consumption will be correspondingly higher. At normal temperatures this winter, Europe may end the season with storage facilities filled at 45-55%, which is lower than in past mild winters (about 60%). And in the event of a colder winter, reserves may decrease to 35%. At the same time, traders may be reluctant to buy gas to replenish reserves, expecting lower prices in the future. In the short term, the need to urgently fill storage facilities may cause a sharp jump in prices, as happened in 2022, Bloomberg notes.
Russian piped gas supplies to Europe to grow by 10% in 2024 – IEA
Piped gas supplies from Russia to Europe added more than 5%, or 1.5bn cubic metres, annually in January-September 2024. "This forecast expects Russian piped gas supplies to OECD Europe to increase by 10% in 2024 compared with 2023, although their profile remains a major uncertainty," IEA said. Piped gas supplies from Russia to Europe added more than 5% or 1.5 bcm annually in January-September 2024. However, the share of Russian piped gas in total European gas demand remains just slightly above 10%, IEA informed.
Russia is ready for the end of transit through Ukraine in 2025, while its oil and gas revenues have increased by 26% over 2024.
In its internal plan for 2025, Russian Gazprom assumes that gas will no longer flow to Europe via transit through Ukraine. This is the base scenario that Russia is considering, writes Reuters.
It is predicted that Russian gas exports to "far abroad," mainly European countries and Turkey, will contract by 20% in 2025 to almost 39 bcm from more than 49 bcm in 2024.
This will result from Ukraine's refusal to provide transit for Russian fuel. Earlier, Moscow sent a signal that it is open to negotiations to continue using Ukrainian transit.
According to the agency's calculations, Russia's federal budget revenues from oil and gas in November 2024 will decrease by RUB0.43 trillion (-36%) compared to October and amount to RUB0.78 trillion. And compared to November 2023, total revenue will decrease by RUB0.18 trillion (-19%). At the same time, in the first eleven months of the year, Russia will receive RUB10.3 trillion from hydrocarbons (+RUB2.1 trillion, +26% compared to the corresponding period in 2023).
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