Page 10 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2024

to €90bn, but even that would make it the largest recipient of agricultural support in the EU.
To put that into context, the current Extended Fund Facility (EFF) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a four-year funding package worth $15.6bn. Likewise, the current EU macroeconomic stability support programme is worth a total of €18bn a year. And the latest Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) estimate of the physical damage done after almost two years of war with Russia is about $150bn, slightly less than the estimated nominal value of Ukraine’s GDP in 2023 of $173bn, according to the EU. Potentially the CAP subsidies will be enormous.
“The financial implications of Ukraine's potential full membership in the EU, encompassing the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2021-2027, are projected to be in the range of €130 to €190bn. The exact figures depend on assumptions regarding the extent of arable land and the country's population,” IW said. “A substantial portion of this funding, between €70bn and €90bn, is earmarked for agricultural subsidies, while an additional €50bn to €90bn is allocated to cohesion policy.” If the accounting works out like this then the amount of financial support headed Ukraine’s way would mean it overtakes France as the biggest recipient of EU funds, which is currently the largest beneficiary with €65bn a year, according to IW.
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