Page 8 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2024

Ukrainians’ trust in Zelenskiy has declined to 62%, against 84% in December 2022. At the same, the percentage of those who said they do not trust Zelenskiy increased from 5% in December 2022 to 18% in the most recent poll.
Ukraine on EU accession path
Both Ukraine and Moldova were formally cleared to start EU membership negotiations on December 15, opening the way for their eventual membership, despite Hungarian objections.
While the decision was largely symbolic – no one actually expects either country to join for years – the decision was an important part of maintaining the support for Ukraine in its war with Russia in the face of growing Ukraine fatigue that is threatening its funding.
Ukraine's accession to EU membership will take years rather than decades, Vera Jourova, the EU Commission's vice-president, told Czech outlet Novinky in an interview published on December 30.
The decision was also an important milestone on a journey that started with the EuroMaidan protests in 2014, when the people of Ukraine committed themselves to the European path and rejected closer ties with Russia.
Ukraine has already completed four out of the seven chapters required by Brussels before it can join and has a long list of reforms to make to become a member, especially reforms to the judiciary and stamp out corruption.
Even though Ukraine will not have access to the structural funds that have transformed markets like Poland for years, the checklist of reforms it is required to make will yield benefits. Russia remains the most prosperous country in the FSU of those that didn’t join the EU, but the most successful reform agenda of all since 1991 has been “join the EU” as the institutional building and other liberal reforms have seen all the countries that joined boom.
Nevertheless, Ukraine’s actual accession to the EU is fraught with problems. The first one is that it will be entitled to some €186bn worth of subsidies, which would require a wholesale remaking of the EU budget to cover the cost. Countries like Poland and Hungary would go from being net beneficiaries to net contributors.
And swallowing Ukraine’s giant agricultural sector would be another problem. As bne IntelliNews as reported, Ukraine can’t join the EU until the Common Agricultural Policy is reformed. Ukraine’s agricultural produce could swamp European markets and put many of their farmers out of business. While Poland is a staunch supporter of Ukraine in its fight against Russia, it has also called on a 20-year suspension of Ukraine’s membership of the CAP should it join to give the rest of Europe time to prepare for its unfettered entry into Western Europe’s food markets.
Taxes, customs, finance and budget: the Ministry of Finance implemented 46% of all EU legal acts in Ukraine.
The Ministry of Finance fully implemented 742 acts, 46% of the total number of acts of EU law implemented by Ukraine, preparing for negotiations to join the EU. The Ministry of Finance is responsible for four areas of negotiation: taxation, customs system, financial control, and financial and budget regulations. As part of the self-screening, the ministry processed more than 7,000 EU acts, and 25 are in the implementation process.
8 UKRAINE OUTLOOK 2024 www.intellinews.com