Page 6 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2024

problem that kept foreign direct investment (FDI) into Ukraine very low even during the post-EuroMaidan in 2014 to the outbreak of war in February 2022 period of relative prosperity, after Ukraine committed itself to the European path.
Both Ukraine and Moldova were formally cleared to start EU membership negotiations on December 15, opening up the way for their eventual membership, despite Hungarian objections.
While the decision was largely symbolic – no one actually expects either country to join for years – the decision was an important part of maintaining the support for Ukraine in its war with Russia in the face of growing Ukraine fatigue that is threatening its funding.
On the political front there were two major developments in 2023. The first was the arrest of oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky on September 2, who emptied his bank, PrivatBank, of $5.5bn, causing it to be nationalised in 2016. None of that money was ever recovered. The second was an apparent split at the top after Zelenskiy clashed with Ukraine’s top general Valerii Zaluzhny, who claimed the war was at a stalemate.
Kolomoisky, Zelenskiy’s former business partner and mentor and who is widely credited with using his media empire to put Zelenskiy into office, returned to Ukraine from Israel after the 2019 elections and continued his nefarious activities with impunity. His arrest by the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) was the first ever detention of any oligarch, and as such a major event in Zelenskiy’s anti-corruption campaign.
It remains to be seen if Kolomoisky’s case will actually go to trial but the fact of a crackdown on the oligarchs is a very encouraging development. Ukraine continues to have a very severe corruption problem and Zelenskiy is well aware that it will be the major obstacle to raising the hundreds of billions of dollars from the private sector needed to rebuild the country.
With Ukrainian presidential elections slated for 2024, Zelenskiy remains the most popular politician in the country, but Zaluzhny is also much admired and could threaten Zelenskiy politically. On top of this there has been some commentary that Zelenskiy is starting to show some authoritarian traits as he seeks to bring more of Ukraine’s organs under his direct control, but this is not a widely held view.
Ukraine’s outlook for 2024 remains up in the air and will depend heavily on both the events in the conflict and the amount of international support the country receives.
1.0 Politics
Anti-corruption drive
On the political front there were two major developments in 2023. The first was the arrest of oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky on September 2, who emptied his bank, PrivatBank, of $5.5bn, causing it to be nationalised in 2016. None of that money was ever recovered.
Kolomoisky, Zelenskiy’s former business partner and mentor and who is widely credited with using his media empire to put Zelenskiy into office, returned to
6 UKRAINE OUTLOOK 2024 www.intellinews.com