Page 18 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2024

wages will be UAH21,809, and inflation-adjusted wages will rise by 8.5% (previously expected to grow by 6.0%).
At the same time, the NBU predicts that the average nominal salary of Ukrainians in 2024 will grow by 15.8%, and the real (inflation-adjusted) salary by 6.9%.
• 2.4 Unemployment
Unemployment overview
Several key economic sectors in Ukraine expect to reduce their number of employees in 2024. According to NBU data, industrial enterprises are predicting a deterioration in the results of their economic activity for the second month in a row in December.
The reasons for this are a decrease in the volume of export-import operations, increased logistics costs due to the blocked borders, and high fuel prices. As a result, 78% of businesses plan to keep their current number of employees, 6% will hire new ones and 15% plan layoffs.
The unemployment rate in Ukraine is forecast to be 19.37% in 2023. The unemployed figure in Ukraine is forecast to be 6.40mn in 2023. The employment rate in Ukraine is forecast to be 53.78% in 2023. The number of employed people in Ukraine is forecast to be 17.78mn in 2023.
The ministry forecasts an unprecedentedly high employment rate of 18.6% in 2024, whereas unemployment did not exceed 10% even during the pandemic, she said. Business is dealing with structural unemployment, when the skills of the applicants fall short of job requirements, Sviridenko said.
The labour market saw signs of stabilisation in 2023, amid lower net migration outflows and a partial return of internally displaced persons. Nevertheless, the still high level of displaced people abroad and within Ukraine should continue to put pressure on the labour market and contribute to mismatches across regions and sectors.
As a result, despite the projected strengthening of economic growth, the unemployment rate is expected to remain elevated throughout the forecast horizon, although on a decreasing trend. At the same time, regional and sectoral shortages of labour and a projected decline of inflation should lead to some recovery in real wages, particularly in 2025.
18 UKRAINE OUTLOOK 2024 www.intellinews.com