Page 19 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2024

Demographics impacting labour market
The demographic consequences of the war will be felt for 20 years after its end. The average life expectancy of men in Ukraine fell to 57.3 years due to the war, or eight years less when compared to a peaceful 2021. The devastating impact of the war on human capital will last for at least one more generation of Ukrainians, i.e. 19-20 years.
Demographers named the three threats that are reducing Ukraine's population, which was already a problem before the war started. In particular, a sharp drop in the birth rate, excessive premature mortality, especially among men of working age, and the departure of citizens abroad are listed as primary factors.
As for the numbers, this year there are 31.6mn people in the territory controlled by Ukraine and 37.6mn within 1991’s borders, said Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research. According to her, families with at least two children should be promoted in Ukraine.
But more urgent is the need to reduce Ukraine’s staggering premature mortality rate. After all, 42% of 20-year-old Ukrainian youths (according to data from before the full-scale invasion) do not live to be 65 years old. This is 11.5 years less than the life expectancy of the average male in the EU.
A study by the University of St. Andrews in Scotland predicts that, under the worst-case scenario, Ukraine will have only 28mn people after the war, and the number of working-age adults and children will drop by 36% and 56% respectively. As for refugees, demographers expect a third of them to return.
War impacting labour market
Ukraine is suffering from an acute labour shortage that has been made worse by the war with Russia. There is concern that a significant number of the approximately 8mn Ukrainian refugees choose to remain abroad, which could hinder post-war reconstruction efforts and make Ukraine more vulnerable to future military aggression.
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