Page 42 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2024

6.0 Real Economy
What foreign and Ukrainian businesses expect in 2024. This year, 74% of AmCham members in Ukraine achieved their planned financial results, while 24% were not able to do so.
In 2024, 46% of surveyed companies hope for an increase in revenues, 41% believe that revenues will not change, and 13% predict a decrease.
Also, 55% of respondents indicate that the number of personnel in their companies will remain unchanged, 33% will increase the number of employees, and 12% expect a decrease.
Just over half (54%) of member companies reported that their investments would remain unchanged.
Also, 40% of respondents believe the war will end in 2025, 24% in 2024 and 17% in five years.
Apart from full-scale war, the biggest geopolitical risks in 2024 that could affect Ukraine and potentially business are the US elections, global armed conflicts/wars, supply chain and economic security disruptions and resource scarcity.
Businesses also expect authorities to strengthen national security and defence by demining territory, carrying out judicial reform and ensuring the protection of supply chains.
Business sentiment, as approximated by the NBU business activity index, remains largely neutral following a significant improvement in the second quarter of 2023. While the overall mood is volatile, companies in the industrial sector and trade expect a further increase in output and turnover.
Also inspiring are results of the survey of the European Business Association. Nearly 77% of respondents, among which are Ukraine’s largest businesses, said they operated without any restrictions in the fourth quarter of 2023. This is a sharp increase from 68-69% in 2Q and 3Q.
• 6.1 Industrial production and PMI
The volume of Ukrainian industrial production rose by 2.4% in the last three quarters of 2023. At the same time, in September, the indicator increased by 11.7% compared to September last year.
Metallurgy production and finished metal products over three quarters of the year decreased by 3.6% compared to the same period in 2022, and metal ore mining slipped by 11.6%. However, in September, production in metallurgy grew by 46.3% compared to September 2022 and decreased by 9.2% compared to the previous month. In iron ore mining, the indicator climbed 89.9% y/y and fell by 3.6% compared to August.
The September indicators for the mining and metallurgical complex showed an increase compared to the same month in 2022 thanks to a low base of
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