Page 44 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2024

technologies. Technologies in Ukraine have advanced over the past 20-30 years and helped to grow 100mn tonnes compared to 30mn tonnes a few decades back. This year, Ukrainian farmers were lucky with the weather, leading to the higher-than-average yield for all crops. We harvested a record yield for each crop type," said the head of the Grain Association, reports UBN.
The good weather compensated for losing 6mn hectares of arable land to war.
The actual volume of grain exports for the 2023/2024 marketing year, as of December 13, stands at 14.697mn tonnes, down by a quarter on the same period last year.
In contrast, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its Ukrainian corn harvest forecast upwards by 3.3%, now projecting 30.5mn tonnes. Wheat production indicators, however, remain unchanged at 22.5mn tonnes. The forecast for both crops indicates a positive trend, with wheat exports expected to reach 12.5mn tonnes and corn exports projected to climb to 21mn tonnes.
On the global stage, the forecast for wheat production has seen an uptick to 783mn tonnes, supported by increased exports from key players such as Australia, the United States, Canada and Ukraine, according to USDA. The trade forecast has improved to 207.2mn tonnes, contributing to a more optimistic outlook. However, this positive trend has led to a reduction in global wheat ending stocks, now standing at 258.2mn tonnes – the lowest since the 2015/16 marketing year.
In the corn sector, the forecast for world production has increased to 1,222.1mn tonnes, with global exports and final stocks also expected to rise to 201.5mn tonnes and 315.2mn tonnes respectively.
While Ukraine grapples with a decline in grain exports due to geopolitical challenges, the global market's overall resilience and increased production forecasts offer a silver lining. The collaborative efforts of key players contribute to a positive trajectory in the face of uncertainties caused by regional conflicts.
Ukraine is looking forward to a bumper harvest in 2024, but due to Russia’s naval blockade exports will be down again, and as of the end of 2023 the sector as a whole is loss making. A third of agricultural enterprises in Ukraine have closed due to the war.
By the end of the 2023/2024 marketing year, another 10-20% firms will close. Small producers are the most affected, while large companies have significant financial cushions that have enabled them to survive.
44 UKRAINE OUTLOOK 2024 www.intellinews.com