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October 13, 2017 www.intellinews.com I Page 2
Kyrgyz election: Schroedinger’s democracy stirs
“Unless I die like Temir, I'll deal with everyone, with everyone who wants to return Bakiyev's times back to us,” Atambayev declared in a speech on October 7, referring to Deputy Prime Minister Temir Jumakadyrov, who was killed in a vehicle collision on the same day. The speech seemed to imply Atambayev believed Jumakadyrov’s death was no coincidence; the deputy PM had been tasked with overseeing the election. His party af- filiation with Atambayev’s Social Democratic Party (SDP) suggested he may have been supporting the ex-PM Sooranbai Jeenbekov, one of two leading candidates, and the candidate who has received Atambayev's public support. Whether real or not, Atambayev’s paranoiac threats didn’t sound too assuring when it comes to his supposed commit- ment to democracy, even if he did add that “the elections will be [nonetheless] fair” at the end of his statement.
Failsafe for the SDP
This “return [to] Bakiyev’s times” is in Atam- bayev's eyes mainly represented by the second most popular contender for the presidency, the Onuguu-Progress Party’s Omurbek Babanov who briefly served as deputy prime minister under Bakiyev in 2009. Kyrgyz media outlets have also alleged that much of Babanov’s business owner- ship within the country stems from illegal enrich- ment he received from Bakiyev. However, grounds for Babanov potentially attempting to solidify a new authoritarian regime are few. Kyrgyzstan’s parliamentary democracy, majority-controlled by the SDP, held a referendum in December 2016, pushed forward by Atambayev and resulting in the weakening of the presidency in favour of the prime minister. This will effectively serve as a failsafe for the SDP if Jeenbekov loses the elec- tion to Babanov.
Kyrgyzstan's last parliamentary election in 2015 received commendations from international observers including the OSCE. But a number of recent developments - including restrictions on freedom of assembly, the copying of Russia’s “foreign agent” law, banning foreign media own- ership and blocking “extremist” websites - have stirred fears that the landlocked post-Soviet state of 5.3mn is straying from its democratic path. Indeed, Freedom House’s Nations in Transit 2017 report classified the country as a consolidated authoritarian regime. No openly undemocratic changes have yet taken place, but Atambayev’s conduct in the past 10 months has raised more than a few eyebrows.
Atambayev, who is barred by the constitution from running for a second term, even said on March
6 that he “supports” the idea of “parliament’s self-dissolution”. It is unclear whether the grim remark expressed intent or mere frustration, but it demonstrates that his constitutional gamble in December also turned many of his former allies into sworn enemies. To some, the constitutional amendments demonstrated Atambayev’s intention to rule from the shadows.
“His endgame - his vision - is to become some- one akin to a mix of Deng Xiaoping and [Geor- gia’s] Bidzina Ivanishvili, or Moldova's Vladimir Plahotniuc,” Kyrgyz political activist Edil Baisalov told bne IntelliNews in November 2016. “In other words, he wants to lurk in the shadows, but main- tain control over the entire situation, whether it be politics, business or law enforcement - a shadow king of sorts. That way he will retain his power and influence, but officially he won’t have any power.”
The growing number of opponents suspicious of Atambayev’s motives triggered a wave of arrests focused on opposition leaders and lawmakers in the first half of 2017. The most prominent case was the detention and subsequent August sen- tencing of Omurbek Tekebayev, 59, leader of the Ata-Meken party, to eight years in prison.