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October 13, 2017 www.intellinews.com I Page 3
Having set a precedent for authoritarian behav- iour, Atambayev and his allies are faced with two choices in battling Babanov’s campaign. Only
one of the options is democratic. The country right now cannot afford another revolution as some Kyrgyz analysts believe it would solidify the country as a failed state. As such, the authori- ties cannot risk disqualifying Babanov altogether. Neither Jeenbekov nor Babanov are expected to break through with the more than 40% of the vote required to win the election within the first round. But as Atambayev’s actions throughout the past year have jeopardised his popularity and, there- fore the SDP’s and Jeenbekov’s popularity, the president's favoured candidate would not survive a second round (the nine remaining candidates would be expected to endorse Babanov in a run- off). Thus, a dramatic campaign to discredit Ba- banov in a bid to get Jeenbekov elected in the first round has ensued.
A self-fulfilling prophecy
Analysts have plenty to take stock of. The Central Election Commission has issued three consecu- tive warnings that Babanov could be removed from the ballot for alleged violations by his cam- paign; Kyrgyzstan’s state security service (GKNB) has detained Babanov’s ally, Kanatbek Isayev, ahead of the election for allegedly planning riots and a violent coup; and the authorities have cited Babanov’s meeting with Kazakh President Nur- sultan Nazarbayev as evidence of Kazakhstan’s “meddling” in Kyrgyz elections, possibly implying that Babanov would rule as a foreign stooge. But, as damning as the moves against Babanov may have been in the public eye, Atambayev opted to take his latest accusation a step further, criticiz- ing Nazarbayev for holding onto power for over a quarter of a century and the Kazakh authorities for turning a blind eye to corruption.
While the extent of Babanov’s proven ties to Ka- zakhstan only include a Kazakh passport he used to own in the 1990s when he lived in Southern Kazakhstan, Atambayev’s reckless speech di- rected at Kazakh elites may backfire. Kazakhstan on October 11 tightened controls at Kazakh-
Kyrgyz border checkpoints, creating long traffic jams. The move has raised fears that Kazakhstan intends to enforce a transport blockade to the detriment of many Kyrgyz citizens, whose liveli- hoods depend on trade. That could potentially turn Atambayev’s claims about the Kazakh factor into a self-fulfilling prophecy, swaying voters away from Jeenbekov to Babanov’s side.
And the others?
The election campaigning commenced on Sep- tember 10 with 13 candidates, but the number has since shrunk to 11. Among the nine less popular candidates, only Temir Sariyev, 54, an ex-prime minister who resigned in April 2016 amid a cor- ruption scandal, stands a chance of faring rela- tively well. The rest of the candidates are essen- tially cannon fodder.
These include Adakhan Madumarov, 52, who has served as head of the National Security Council and as deputy prime minister; Arstanbek Abdyl- daev, a 49-year-old businessman with a reputa- tion for curious remarks; Ulugbek Kochkorov,
43, who leads the little known Zhany Door party; Amirbek Beknazarov, 61, a nationalist, who played a key role in the two Kyrgyz revolutions; Toktaiym Umetalieva, 55, a rights activist and the only wom- an in the presidential race; Ernis Zarlykov, 50, an ex deputy mayor of the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek; Taalatbek Masadykov, 56, the least known candi- date with no ties to any political party; and Arslan- bek Maliyev, 59, who leads the small Aalam party.
No major changes in sight?
Regardless of the victor that eventually emerges from this intense contest, neither Jeenbekov nor Babanov are anticipated to stray too far from Atambayev's line. Babanov’s Onuguu-Progress, the second largest party in parliament, has not been particularly critical of the ruling SDP’s poli- cies, despite being listed as an opposition group.
One election outcome would be clear though: a Babanov victory would serve as indisputable proof that Kyrgyzstan, with its many flaws, had finally managed to hold a more-or-less fair presidential