Page 95 - RusRPTDec23

Several storage facilities along the Rhine have undergone restrictions recently. A major partial overhaul at BP's 257,000 b/d Gelsenkirchen refinery, coupled with a lacklustre supply situation caused by too-low Rhine water levels in the past few weeks, have led to a drawdown in stocks. Water levels have risen since to such an extent that ships can enter the Lower Rhine fully laden, and to pass through the Kaub bottleneck on their way to the Upper Rhine at more than 90pc of their capacity. But barge fleets remain almost fully booked, according to shipowners.
Resupply of tanks along the Rhine is being hampered by severe delays to barge arrivals at a number of terminals. On 2 November, storm Ciaran caused loading at several terminals in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) to be interrupted for a whole day, and this will probably further postpone the arrival of already-scheduled barges.
Russia to invest over $11bn in upgrade of refineries by 2028 says Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. According to the deputy prime minister, the production of gasoline and diesel will rise by 4mn tonnes and by 30mn tonnes per year, respectively
● Prices & demand
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has upgraded its outlook on growth of global oil demand for 2023 by 100,000 barrels per day compared with its previous estimate to 2.4mn barrels per day, according to the IEA’s November report. In absolute terms, the agency expects oil demand to reach 102mn barrels per day by the end of the year. That said, in 2024 it is projected to slow down to 930,000 barrels per day. However, even considering a slower increase global oil demand is set to rise to a record annual high of 102.9mn barrels per day in 2024. Chinese oil demand rose to another record high of 17.1mn barrels per day in September, underpinning global growth, the IEA said.
Oil production growth projections for 2023 were revised up on the back of stronger-than-anticipated Chinese demand and strong US production. A IEA report reveals several OPEC members are producing above target for October, motivated by oil price spikes earlier where Brent surpassed the $90pb threshold.
However, there are differences in global oil demand projections for 2024 so far which range from 930 kb/d by IEA and 2.25 mb/d by OPEC. That said, the surplus is highly dependent on oil prices stabilising, where Brent is expected to remain above $80pb, meaning a prolonged period of oil cuts and a gradual phasing out next year. Oxford Economics forecasts Brent to average $84pb in 2023, and to reach $86pb in 2024.
95 RUSSIA Country Report December 2023 www.intellinews.com