Page 46 - RusRPTFeb24

3.1 Macroeconomic overview
IMF revises upward outlook for Russian GDP According to data presented in the IMF’s report, Russian GDP increased by 3% in 2023. Preliminary reports from the Kremlin have revised up the result from 2023 to 4% growth.
Like 2023, 2024 begins with an upward revision of Russian GDP forecasts. In early January, the World Bank changed this tradition, keeping its forecast for 2024 at the same level (growth by 1.3%). But today the IMF, in its World Economic Outlook report, raised its forecast for Russian GDP growth for 2024 from 1.1% immediately to 2.6%. This is significantly higher than the interval forecast of the Central Bank (0.5–1.5%) and almost comparable to the estimate of the Ministry of Economic Development (2.3%).
Russia’s economic potential was only about 2% pre-war as Putin diverted most of the spare money into military modernisation, well below the 6% economists said it should be. But it has fallen further to around 0.5% post-war as even more money is funnelled into the war machine.
46 RUSSIA Country Report February 2024 www.intellinews.com