Page 24 - UKRRptDec22

3.0 Macro Economy
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Ukraine’s energy crisis has deepened the GDP’s fall to 39% in October. The Russian attacks on critical infrastructure
in October exacerbated the GDP’s fall, to 39%, through October 2021. In September-August, the indicator remained at the 35% level. However, Ukraine's economy, even under increasingly difficult conditions, has demonstrated good adaptability and flexibility, noted the Minister of Economy of Ukraine, Yulia Svyridenko. “Based on nine months of results, we estimated the drop in GDP at about 30%. However, in the event of continued attacks and, as a result, blackouts, the GDP may fall lower," she added. Because of the mass of attacks in October, Ukraine may revise the budget deficit amount for 2023, which is currently assessed at $38B, and repair costs for urgent infrastructure restoration, which is presently valued at $17B.
The fall in Ukraine's GDP in 2022 could be 33-35%, or more than UAH 1 trillion ($27bn), Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said at a briefing in Kyiv on November 14.
After a better-than-expected third quarter, the Ministry of Economy spoke about the possibility of improving the forecast for a fall in GDP in 2022 from 33.2% to about 30%. However, then at the end of October, while finalizing the draft state budget for the second reading, this figure was improved only to 32%, reports Interfax.
24 UKRAINE Country Report December 2022 www.intellinews.com