Page 25 - UKRRptDec22
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"Given the recent estimate of GDP by the State Statistics Service (a drop in real GDP in the first quarter by 15.1%, in the second - by 37.2%) and an estimate of a fall in GDP by 35% in the third quarter and by 37% in the fourth quarter, the annual forecast for a fall in real GDP in 2022 was adjusted to 32%," the government noted in an explanatory note.
In addition, the GDP growth forecast for 2023 was downgraded from 4.6% to 3.2%.
In mid-October, the National Bank of Ukraine improved its assessment of the economic recession in 2022 from 33.4% to 31.5%, but at the same time worsened its forecast for GDP growth in 2023 from 5.5% to 4%.
The Bloomberg consensus says Ukraine will have -34% growth in 2022.
Makes sense given Q2 GDP collapse. It also says 2023 growth will be +5%. For that you need +33% Q4/Q4 2023 growth, i.e. immediate end to war & then a big boom to overcome a huge negative base effect.
25 UKRAINE Country Report December 2022 www.intellinews.com
