Page 38 - UKRRptDec22

forecast of 4.6%.
The inflation forecast in 2023 has been reduced from 30% to 28% (estimated from December to December).
The nominal GDP forecast for 2023 was adjusted by UAH 120bn to UAH 6,280bn.
More optimistic expectations regarding financial support from international partners led to the adjustment of the assumption regarding the exchange rate of the UAH to the $.
By the end of the year, it is projected at UAH 45.8 per $(instead of UAH 50 per $in the previous forecast). The assumption regarding the average annual value of the exchange rate remained unchanged (UAH 42.2 per $).
Revenues
Revenues of the State Budget 2023 are foreseen in the amount of UAH 1,330bn, including revenues of the general fund of UAH 1,173bn and revenues of the special fund - UAH 156bn.
Revenues are proposed to be increased by UAH 50bn compared to the first reading, including UAH 26bn from the general fund, and UAH 24bn from the special fund.
The key factors that influenced the revision of the revenue forecast to the second reading are: - proposals given in the Budget Conclusions of the Parliament of Ukraine; - legal provisions regarding amendments to the Tax Code of Ukraine on the fuel excise tax rates, - adjusted macro indicators.
An increase of revenues of the general fund of the State Budget is provided by: o the tax and fee on the income of individuals in the amount of UAH 15bn (due to the revision of macro indicators and improvement of approaches in the forecasting of personal income taxes); o VAT on imported goods for UAH 27bn (due to the increase in fuel tax rates from 7% to 20%); o funds transferred by the NBU in the amount of UAH 35.5bn (taking into account the updated information on the amount of revenues provided by the National Bank).
At the same time, the following revenues of the general fund of the State Budget are planned to decrease: o income tax by UAH 21bn (due to a decrease in the profit of profitable enterprises); o rent payments for natural gas extraction by UAH 23bn (due to changes in the way the tax base is calculated in the natural gas taxation); o VAT on goods produced in Ukraine, taking into account budget compensation of UAH 6bn (due to changes in macro indicators and reduction in consumer spending).
The special fund provides for an increase in: o excise tax on fuel of UAH 7bn (due to the return of pre-war tax rates); o funds transferred by the NBU of UAH16bn ; o grants of UAH 442mn (under international support programs for the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Reintegration).
Deficit
38 UKRAINE Country Report December 2022 www.intellinews.com