Page 19 - Turkey Outlook 2023

from 135.9 points in October to 135.7 in November, up 0.3% y/y
(Record high: 159.7 in March).

As of December 29, Brent was up 6% y/y to $83 (it tested the
$140-level in March) while the Dutch TTF 1-month Natural Gas Futures
contract was down by 21% y/y to €84/MWh ($951 per 1,000 m3) (it
tested $4,000 in March).

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) was higher by 13% y/y at
112. The USD/Turkish lira (TRY) pair was up 59% y/y to 18.7.

3.3 Inflation and monetary policy

Turkey’s official consumer price index (CPI) inflation ended 2022 at
64% y/y, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK, or TurkStat) said on
December 3.

The official rate peaked in October at 86%, the highest headline rate
recorded by Turkey since the 91% posted in June 1998.

With the advent of December, the base effect from a year ago came
into effect, pulling inflation down.

At 64%, Turkey remains in seventh place in the world inflation league.

The Istanbul-based ENAG inflation research group, meanwhile,
released an end-2022 inflation figure of 138% y/y.

TUIK also gave an official figure of 98% y/y for producer price index
(PPI) inflation at end-2022.

On October 27, the central bank hiked its expectation for end-2022
official inflation to 65% (upper boundary: 68%) from the previous figure
of 60% (upper boundary: 64%) given in the July inflation report.

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