Page 10 - SE Outlook Regions 2024

While this seems highly positive for the country, in which reforms have been stalled for decades due to political disagreements, Bosnian Serb politicians are again blocking key reforms and destabilising the country with secessionist threats and the adoption of highly controversial laws at entity-level.
Bosnia comprises two autonomous entities – the Muslim-Croat Federation and Republika Srpska, as well as the autonomous Brcko district. Each of them has its own parliament, government and president and there are also state-level institutions where representatives of the three constituent peoples – the Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims), the Serbs and the Croats – have equal representation.
In Republika Srpska, President Milorad Dodik has triggered the adoption of several controversial laws, including rejecting the authority of international community’s high representative Christian Schmidt, criminalising defamation, a Moscow-style law on ‘foreign agents’ and a law rejecting the authority of the state-level constitutional court.
Dodik is facing trial for putting into force the laws rejecting the authority of Schmidt and of the state-level constitutional court. After several unsuccessful attempts to start the trial, it is expected to develop through 2024 but might last for years before a sentence is issued.
At the same time, Dodik gave clear indications he will continue his secessionist threats through 2024 and further escalation of political tensions can be expected.
Meanwhile, the state-level Defence Minister Zukan Helez said in November paramilitary camps backed by Russia have been detected in Republika Srpska. He claimed to have photos proving this.
Helez’ claims were denied by Republika Srpska but are in line with earlier US reports suggesting that Russia is likely arming and training paramilitary groups in the pro-Russian Republika Srpska and could use them to ignite a new military conflict in the politically unstable Balkan state.
If the international community or Bosnian state-level bodies manage to neutralise Dodik or force him to back off from his secessionist moves, the country could adopt in 2024 all 14 key reforms needed for the start of EU membership talks.
1.1 Politics - Bulgaria
After more than two years of political insecurity, Bulgarian parties managed to set aside their differences in 2022 and form a pro-Western government backed officially by the two largest formations in parliament – Gerb and Change Continues-Democratic Bulgaria – and unofficially
10 SE Outlook 2024 www.intellinews.com