Page 11 - SE Outlook Regions 2024

by the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS).
The government that will be led for nine months by CC’s Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov and then for another nine months by Gerb’s Deputy Prime Minister Mariya Gabriel has set an ambitious reform agenda, including to finally pass constitutional changes that would complete the reform of the judiciary. For that goal, the two formations need the support of the DPS as changes to the constitution are only adopted with at least a majority of two-thirds of MPs.
The amendments were adopted in the third and final reading on December 20. Although President Rumen Radev said he would refer the amendments to the constitutional court, the changes should enter into force in 2024. This could finally unblock Bulgaria’s entry in the Schengen border-free area.
There was progress on this at the end of 2023, when Denkov announced that Bulgaria and neighbouring Romania would get access to Schengen for air and sea travel, pending negotiations that are due to continue until March.
Although the country fulfilled all formal criteria years ago, it was blocked by the Netherlands for years due to lack of progress in the reform of the judiciary and the fight against top level corruption. Only at the end of 2023 did the Netherlands lifted its veto on Bulgaria’s entry into Schengen, saying the country had fulfilled the necessary reforms.
Austria also blocked Bulgaria and Romania, claiming that Schengen is not working properly anyway and needs revision before another expansion.
Bulgaria has also set the goal of entering the eurozone in January 2025. The eurozone’s members should decide whether to let the country join in the middle of 2024. The only possible hurdle Sofia could face is the high inflation and the government is working hard to overcome it.
Meanwhile, the pro-Western government and the ruling majority in parliament unblocked military aid to Ukraine, which had been frozen by the caretaker pro-Russian government of Gulub Donev as ordered by Radev. In December, the parliament rejected Radev’s veto on sending 100 armoured vehicles to Ukraine. It also approved a new batch of military aid, consisting of anti-aircraft missiles and anti-missile complexes, as well as other weapons the country does not need.
In terms of internal politics, although the formations backing the government have constant tensions, none of them seems willing to bring down the government at least before the end of 2024. In March, Gabriel should take over the premiership seat from Denkov who will resign as agreed. Experts are divided in their opinions on whether the government will survive long enough for another rotation after Gabriel,
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