Page 29 - SE Outlook Regions 2024

expected to remain negative. Sales of energy and intermediate goods were the main groups negatively affecting the industrial sales in 2023, falling by 14.4% y/y each.
As the Russian war in Ukraine is expected to continue through 2024, Bosnia’s industrial sector will most likely continue struggling and could keep falling at least in the first half of the year.
2.3 Macroeconomy - Bulgaria
Bulgaria key economic figures and forecasts
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Nominal GDP (BGN bn) 95.4 102.7 110.0 120.4 120.0 139.0 167.8
Real GDP (% y/y) 3.4 2.9 2.8 3.7 4.2 4.5 3.9
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 7.6 6.2 5.2 4.2 5.1 5.3 5.4
Consumer prices (avg, % y/y) -0.8 2.1 2.8 3.1 1.7 3.3 14.3
General budget balance (% of GDP) 1.6 0.8 0.2 -1.0 -5.2 -3.0 -2.9
Current account balance (% of GDP) 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.9 -2.2 3.1 3.2 Source: National Statistics Institute, Ministry of Finance, Bulgarian National Bank
2.3.1 GDP growth
Bulgaria’s economic growth slowed down significantly in 2023 compared to the previous year mainly due to the recession in the EU. The forecasts for 2023’s GDP growth vary from 1.4% to 2%. In 2024, the economic growth should speed up, backed by lower inflation that will boost private consumption. Additionally, the country should benefit from a second tranche under the Recovery and Resilience Plan that would boost infrastructure projects.
Bulgaria’s central bank has projected that the economic growth will accelerate to 2.7%, while in 2025 it should increase by 3.6%. However, the central bank warned that international geopolitical tensions and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are posing a prevailing risk for a lower economic growth in Bulgaria in 2024 and 2025. Internal risks are related to a potential slower absorption of EU funds and a delay in implementing projects planned under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan.
29 SE Outlook 2024 www.intellinews.com