Page 30 - SE Outlook Regions 2024

The EC expects that Bulgaria’s economy will grow by just 1.8% in 2024, even lower compared to the expected 2% growth for 2023, before picking up to 2.6% in 2025. The economic growth will be mainly affected by private consumption.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is significantly more optimistic, expecting that Bulgaria’s economy will grow by 3.2% in 2024 from an estimated 1.7% in 2023. This is below the World Bank’s expectation that the country’s GDP will post a 2.7% growth in 2024 from just 1.4% in 2023.
Moreover, the World Bank expects that Bulgaria’s economic growth could be further suppressed if Bulgaria fails to deliver on the reform milestones under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, resulting in further delays of upcoming tranches.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) sees the 2024 growth at 2.6%, supported by moderating inflation, accelerating EU funds absorption, and stronger foreign demand.
According to the latest available statistics office data, Bulgaria’s economy posted a 1.8% y/y growth in the third quarter of 2023.
2.3.2 Industrial production
Bulgarian industrial production was negatively affected by the economic crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As the war is expected to continue throughout 2024, this could further the industrial performance.
According to the latest available statistics office data, the industrial production decreased by 5.4 y/y in October, keeping the downward trend from the start of the year, after falling by 11.6% y/y in September.
Manufacturing production decreased 5.5% y/y in October, after falling by 7.7% y/y in September. Within manufacturing, the biggest y/y
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