Page 35 - SE Outlook Regions 2024

2.6 Macroeconomy - North Macedonia
2.6.1 GDP growth
The government’s economic projections for 2024 anticipate a growth rate of 3.4%, driven by increased investments, robust consumption, and a recovery in external demand.
North Macedonia's central bank expects the country’s GDP growth to accelerate to 3% in 2024, from an estimated 1.9% in 2023 with the implementation of public infrastructure projects and an improved external environment.
Looking further ahead, the medium-term outlook is promising, with an estimated growth rate of around 4%, contingent on the absence of significant economic shocks.
The World Bank projected GDP growth for North Macedonia of 2.5% in 2024, down from 1.8% in 2023. Growth in the medium term is expected to experience a moderate acceleration, driven by increased public investments, recovering consumption, and a boost in exports. However, a subsequent deceleration towards the potential growth trend is anticipated thereafter.
In November the European Commission downgraded its GDP projection for 2024 to 2.7% from 3.1% in its spring forecast. For 2025, it projects economic growth of 2.8%.
According to the statistics office data, North Macedonia’s economy expanded by a real 1.2% y/y in the third quarter of 2023, following a 1.1% increase in the previous quarter. The biggest annual increase in 3Q23 was registered in the sector of financial and insurance activities (6.6%), real estate activities (5.6%), professional, scientific and technical activities (5.5%) and IT sector (5.4%). Construction sector experienced a huge decline of 13% in the third quarter, while the manufacturing sector fell by 1.2%.
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