Page 37 - SE Outlook Regions 2024

2.7 Macroeconomy - Moldova
MOLDOVA key economic figures and forecasts
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Nominal GDP (USD bn) 7.98 9.52 11.25 11.74 11.53 13.69 14.42
Real GDP (% y/y) 4.41 4.69 4.30 3.68 -7.4 13.9 -6.0
Industrial output (% y/y) 0.88 3.46 3.77 2.10 -5.72 12.45 -3.07
Unemployment rate (avg, %) 5.1 3.8 3.2 3.1
Nominal industrial wages (% y/y) 10.3 12.0 13.1 14.2 10.2 12.5 15.5
Producer prices (avg, % y/y) 4.5 3.3 0.4 1.8 2.6 8.5 26.7
Consumer prices (avg, % y/y) 6.48 6.57 3.05 4.84 3.77 5.11 28.74
Consumer prices (eop, % y/y) 2.4 7.3 0.9 7.5 0.4 13.9 30.2
General budget balance (% of GDP) -1.5 -0.6 -0.9 -1.4 -5.2 -1.9 -3.3
Public debt (% of GDP) 31.6 28.9 27.0 25.1 34.0 32.1 34.5
Current account balance (% of -4.2 -5.7 -10.6 -9.7 -7.7 -11.6 -15.8 GDP)
Official FX reserves ($bn) 2.21 2.80 3.00 3.06 3.78 3.90 4.47
Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) 75.8 71.0 65.3 63.5 70.2 64.0 65.7
EUR/MDL (avg) 22.1 20.8 19.8 19.7 19.7 20.9 19.9
USD/MDL (avg) 19.2 18.49 16.8 17.6 17.3 17.7 18.9 Source: BNM, BNS, TradingEconomics
2.7.1 GDP growth
Moldova continues to receive financial support from foreign development partners, but the expected robust economic growth remains under threat as the war in Ukraine is prolonged, hindering significant FDI inflows and, domestically, the political outlook remains in limbo for at least a year.
Moldova’s economy was heading for a 1.7% advance in GDP in 2023 as the more dovish monetary policy is paying dividends, inflation is easing and the agricultural output looks strong, the European Commission said in its Autumn Forecast published on November 15. The growth will double to 3.8% in 2024 and further accelerate to 4.2% in 2025, under the EC’s scenario.
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