Page 51 - SE Outlook Regions 2024

2.11 Macroeconomy - Slovenia
2.11.1 GDP growth
The Institution of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (IMAD) expects Slovenian GDP growth to be slightly higher at 2.8% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025, following expected growth of 1.6% for 2023.
According to the European Commission, Slovenia's GDP growth is predicted to experience a gradual acceleration, reaching 2% in 2024 and further increasing to 2.7% in 2025. After a brief hiatus in 2023, private consumption is forecasted to resume growth, buoyed by strong employment rates and consistent wage growth. The anticipated rise in external demand is poised to fuel an acceleration in export growth. However, with imports growing at a comparable rate, the contribution from net exports is expected to remain relatively low. With inflation easing to 3.9% in 2024, growth is set to pick up thanks to the ongoing strong investment activity and expected gains in real purchasing power.
The current account is forecast to return to surplus. Investment growth is poised to stay robust, primarily propelled by the construction sector and, in 2025, augmented by increased investment in machinery and equipment to facilitate productivity enhancement, the EC said.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has projected 1.8% GDP growth for Slovenia in 2024 following anticipated growth of 1.4% in 2023. The slowdown in 2023 reflected weakened domestic and external demand.
S&P Global Ratings and DBRS Morningstar affirmed Slovenia's credit ratings. S&P maintained the AA- rating with a stable outlook, while DBRS Morningstar assigned A (high) and A (high) ratings, also with an equally stable outlook.
The agencies attribute Slovenia's favourable position to several factors, including a well-developed economy, effective debt management, a carefully planned fiscal framework, and membership in European institutions. The presence of a credible macroeconomic policy framework enables Slovenia to navigate through various global and domestic challenges, contributing positively to the stable outlook.
Despite this year's catastrophic floods, which pose an additional challenge to the economy and public finances, the agencies anticipate an improvement in the financial situation as expenditures for flood damage restoration decrease in the coming years.
51 SE Outlook 2024 www.intellinews.com