Page 54 - SE Outlook Regions 2024

Albania’s main trading partners – and other major currencies during 2023.
This is set to continue into 2024 as the situation showed no signs of abating. In the first half of December the lek had risen again to between ALL101 and ALL102 to the euro, close to the historic highs seen in July, when the lek for the first time came close to (but just missed) the ALL100 to the euro mark.
This has caused a fall in exports of goods, and both exporters and producers have appealed to the government to help. Tirana stepped in by extending the deadline for struggling exporters to pay their income taxes in mid-2022.
In November, the Pro-Eksport association representing the clothing and footwear manufacturing sector warned that 75,000 jobs are at risk in Albania as the high exchange rate of the lek against the euro is making Albania’s fashion industry exports uncompetitive.
The manufacture of clothing and shoes accounted for over 38% of Albanian-made exports in 2022, according to Pro-Eksport.
“The manufacturing businesses in the sector have already started to reduce the production lines, some others have started closing businesses, as the costs while waiting for the situation to change are high,” the association warned.
The European Commission commented on the situation in its 2023 Autumn Forecast, noting that while services exports – mainly related to tourism – remained strong, there was a weakening in goods exports during 2022. It attributed this to a “loss of price competitiveness from the appreciation of the domestic currency”.
The latest figures from statistics office Instat show that exports fell by 4.3% y/y in October and by 8.6% in the first 10 months of 2023. Textiles and footwear was a key contributor to the fall in exports.
Looking ahead to 2024, the European Commission said: “Goods export growth is projected to slightly improve as the effect of the currency appreciation softens but to remain weak in 2024 given the outlook for Albania’s main trade partners.” However, it added, “The negative growth contribution of net exports is forecast to decrease in 2024.”
3.2 External Environment - Bosnia & Herzegovina
Bosnia’s exports decreased in the first ten months of 2023, according to the latest available statistics office data, affected mainly by the worsening economic environment of the country’s main trading partners. In January-October, exports decreased by 6.5% y/y to BAM14.1bn, whereas imports moved down 2.3% y/y to BAM23.17bn. The coverage of imports by exports was 60.7%, down from 63.5% a
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