Page 62 - SE Outlook Regions 2024

The closing of Romania’s external deficit may advance over the next couple of years faster than the government and independent analysts expect, particularly if the government pursues material fiscal consolidation. The scenario is subject to significant upward risks related to multiple drivers with an impact on energy prices and fiscal policy during the coming electoral year.
The state forecasting body CNP revised the current account deficit’s trajectory downwards in November 2023 in line with the more moderate growth, to 7.1% of GDP of 2023 (from 8.1% estimated in August) and 6.9% in 2024 (from 7.7% of GDP envisaged previously).
Total foreign direct investments (FDI) in Romania have shrunk, but more new investments have been reported.
The flow of gross FDI to Romania, namely non-residents’ investments in the country, contracted by 43% in the 12-month period ending September, compared to the previous 12-month period, to €6.43bn.
As a ratio to GDP, the gross FDI narrowed to 2.1% from 4.3% a year earlier – which was still a historically high level. Before the COVID-19 crisis, gross FDI to Romania measured around 2.4% of GDP.
62 SE Outlook 2024 www.intellinews.com