Page 69 - SE Outlook Regions 2024

4.3 Inflation & Monetary Policy - Bulgaria
Bulgarian inflation remained high in 2023 despite gradually decreasing and is seen at between 6% and 10% as of the end of the year, which will put at risk the country’s target to join the eurozone in 2025. Final figures for 2023 are to be released later in January.
Bulgaria’s consumer price index (CPI) increased by 5.8% year on year in October, as annual inflation continued to slow down, according to the latest available statistics office data.
The central bank projects that inflation measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) will fall to 3.1% in 2024 and 2025 from 6.1% at the end of 2023. On the other hand, the government expects that inflation will gradually slow down in 2024 to 4.8% and will fall further to 2.8% in 2025 and to 2.2% in 2026.
The IMF also expects Bulgaria’s inflation to fall to around 3% in 2024 from an estimated 8.5% in 2023. The European Commission has projected that Bulgaria’s inflation will fall to 4% in 2024 from 8.8% in 2023 and will decrease further in 2025, to 2.9%.
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