Page 7 - TURKRptNov22

2.0 Politics 2.1 Watchlist
● Global liquidity: The Fed’s balance sheet has stopped breaking records.
A record $8.97 trillion was registered as of April 12. As of Oct 18, it stood at $8.74 trillion.
The Reverse Repo (RRP) account (money supply that is parked back at the Fed by banks) stood at $2.19 trillion as of Oct 26. A record $2.43 trillion was registered on September 30.
The Treasury General Account (TGA) (money supply that is parked back at the Fed by the government) stood at $607bn as of October 19.
November, prior to the beginning of the new year rally in December, could be bloody this year.
The yield on 10-year US Treasury papers hit 4.34% on October 21 and the USD index (DXY) hit 115 on September 28.
The US yield curve remains inverted. The US entered a technical recession as of Q2. A recession with high inflation is called stagflation.
European Central Bank
On September 8, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 75bp rate hike.
On October 27, at its next rate-setting meeting, the ECB was expected to deliver another 75bp rate hike.
The EUR/USD saw 0.95 on September 28.
The spread between Italy 10-year and Germany 10-year papers
remains above the 200bp-level.
Inflation in the Euro Area extended its record-breaking series to an eleventh consecutive month with 9.9% y/y (not double digits) in September. Producer price inflation broke a fresh record with 43% y/y in August.
7 TURKEY Country Report November 2022 www.intellinews.com