Page 9 - TURKRptNov22

The FAO food price index declined for the sixth consecutive month from 138 points in August to 136 in September, up 6% y/y (Record high: 159.7 in March).
As of October 27, Brent was up 9% y/y to $95 while Dutch TTF November 2022 Natural Gas Futures contract was higher by 12% y/y to €108/MWh ($1.16/m3).
The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) was higher by 8% y/y at 114. The USD/Turkish lira (TRY) pair was up 95% y/y to 18.62.
● On October 27, the central bank hiked its expectation for end-2022 official inflation to 65% (upper limit: 68%) from the previous figure of 60% (upper limit: 64%) given in the July inflation report.
The authority expected inflation to peak at below the 90%-level in November and to sharply fall in December due to the base effect thanks to the high inflation figure reported for December 2021.
The guidance is based on the assumption that the Turkish lira (TRY) will not experience another crash. As of October 27, the USD/TRY was up 4% compared to 17.9 on July 29.
● January 26: New quarterly inflation report and updated inflation forecasts will be released.
● November 3: Official inflation for October.
● November 24: Monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting decision at
14h (?) Istanbul time.
October 20: Cut by 150bp to 10.5%. September 22: Cut by 100bp to
12%. August 18: Cut by 100bp to 13%.
On October 20, the central bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) also said in its accompanying statement for the rate decision that it has “evaluated taking a similar step in the following meeting and ending the rate cut cycle.”
As a result, the MPC is expected to deliver another 150bp rate cut at its next meeting, scheduled for November 24. The policy rate will decline to 9% and it will stay there.
9 TURKEY Country Report November 2022 www.intellinews.com