Page 18 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2025

• 2.4 Unemployment & demographics
Due to the suspension of official unemployment data publication by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine since the onset of the full-scale war, precise quarterly unemployment figures for 2024 are not available. However, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has provided forecasts indicating a gradual decline in the unemployment rate over the coming years.
According to the NBU's projections:
● 2023: The unemployment rate is expected to remain high, around 26%.
● 2024: A decrease to approximately 20% is anticipated.
● 2025: A further decline to about 17.6% is projected.
ICU estimates the unemployment rate in 2024 at 15% and predicts this to decrease to 12% in 2025.
In Ukraine, mortality exceeds birth rates by 200%. In 2024, the mortality rate in Ukraine exceeded the birth rate by three times. From January to June of this year, only 87,655 children were born, while 250,972 citizens died, the Parliamentary Committee on National Health noted. The fertility rate per woman in 2024 will be only 0.6, three times less than the level necessary to maintain a stable population. More than 187,000 babies were born last year, which was already the lowest figure in Ukraine's entire history since its independence.
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