Page 19 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2025

Prolonged power outages in Ukraine have provoked a new wave of refugees; the NBU has worsened its forecast for personnel shortages and returning Ukrainians. In Ukraine, increased pressure on commercial activities due to a lack of workers in the third quarter of the year was caused by an increase in migration outflow that was beyond expectations, mainly due to long-term power outages over the summer, the NBU reported.
At the last count, there were an estimated 7.5mn Ukrainians living abroad, of which between half and three quarters now say they will not return home.
Assumptions for the net outflow of external migrants for 2024 have been downgraded to about 500,000 people. The NBU also predicts that the number of returning emigrants will be less than expected – about 200,000 people annually.
According to the UN, the number of Ukrainian migrants rose by almost 200,000 during the third quarter of 2024, and the growth continued at the beginning of the fourth quarter, reaching almost 6.8mn people.
Eurostat estimates that the number of Ukrainians with temporary protection status in the EU grew by 33,500 to about 4.2mn in September. The largest influxes took place in Germany (+6,970 people), Poland (+4,640) and Spain (+3,130).
About 65% of Ukrainian refugees in Germany will not return. According to the head of the State Office for Refugees (LAF), Mark Seibert, the share of Ukrainian refugees living in Berlin who have decided to stay in Germany permanently has risen to 65%. According to him, a year and a half ago most Ukrainians stated that they wanted to return to Ukraine. In total, 1.12mn Ukrainians have been granted temporary protection status in Germany.
• 2.5 FDI
In 2022, FDI inflows to Ukraine collapsed to $848mn, a substantial decrease from $7.3bn in 2021 due to the Russian invasion. Despite the ongoing conflict, 2023 saw a rebound in FDI. Net inflows reached $403mn in July 2023, up from $150mn in July 2022. Overall, FDI net inflows stood at $1.3bn in the second quarter of 2023, against $286mn in the same quarter the previous year.
The positive trend continued into 2024. In the second quarter, FDI climbed by $1.122bn, indicating sustained investor confidence despite the challenging environment.
Specific sectors have attracted significant foreign investment during this period. For instance, in October 2024 the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) provided $435mn to support the merger of Ukraine's telecom operators,
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