Page 21 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2025

3-4% of GDP.
Ukraine's trade turnover for the first 11 months of 2024 exceeded the previous year's indicator by almost $2.5bn: According to the State Customs Service, Ukraine's trade turnover in January-November amounted to $101.9bn: imports were $63.6bn, exports $38.3bn. Ukraine imported the most goods from China, $13bn; Poland, $6.3bn, and Germany, $4.8bn. Ukraine exported the most to Poland, $4.4bn; Spain, $2.7bn, and Germany, $2.7bn.
Of the total volume of imported goods, 65% comprised the following categories:
• machinery, equipment and transport – $22.2bn
• chemical industry products – $10.7bn
• fuel and energy – $8.2bn
The top three most exported goods from Ukraine included: • food products – $22.6bn
• metals and products made of them – $4.1bn
• machinery, equipment, and transport – $3.2bn
In 2023, Ukraine's trade turnover amounted to $99.4bn, with imports totalling $63.5bn and exports totalling $36bn.
But Ukraine still needs to catch up to its pre-war export figures: Analysts note that in ten months of 2024, Ukraine earned $46.35bn from exports of goods and services. Compared to the corresponding period a year earlier, exports increased by 10%.
During this time, $32.25bn (70%) of the revenue was accounted for by goods and $14.09bn (30%) by services exports.
"Despite the gradual growth, total export volumes still do not reach the level of 2021. Compared to 2021, exports are 29% lower, which then amounted to $65.15bn," Opendatabot notes.
The volume of exported goods in 10M24 grew by 12.7% y/y, which is still 37.5% less than in 2021. Exports of services this year amounted to $14.09bn, 4% more than last year and 4% less than in 2021.
Trade deficit widens, imports surge: The foreign trade deficit is projected to remain at 18% of GDP in 2025, matching the 2024 level, which is a reduction from the record 21% in 2023 but still historically high. Of the total, 15 percentage points will stem from a goods trade deficit, with the remaining 3 percentage points from services.
Imports of goods continue to expand, growing 7% y/y in the first ten months of 2024. Analysts expect this high single-digit growth to persist in 2025, underpinned by robust domestic demand and the strength of the hryvnia. Purchases of military equipment and energy-saving products are set to remain
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