Page 32 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2025

achieve victory.
Europe delivered just over 50% of the aid it promised to Ukraine in 2024 and will have a bigger gap to fill in 2025. From the beginning of the Russian invasion in February 2022 to the end of October 2024, Europe pledged €241bn in support of Ukraine, while the US promised €119bn in aid.
As of December 17, out of the €241bn in aid only €125bn had been delivered – a little over 50%. There were no concrete plans to provide the remaining €64bn promised to Kyiv. The US actually only sent $88bn, according to the Kiel Institute of Economy's Ukraine Support Tracker, which has been tracking funding to Ukraine since January 2022 up until October 2024.
The difference is partly explained by the €52bn that was only promised by Europe and the G7 in the autumn of 2024, when a mechanism for using frozen Russian assets as collateral for loans to Ukraine was finally approved.
Ukraine's tax hike and G7 loan are enough for planned defense expenses in 2025, Finance Ministry says. A recently signed tax hike and parts of the G7's $50bn loan will be sufficient to cover Ukraine’s defense expenses included in the 2025 budget, the Finance Ministry said on December 11.
Ukraine's international reserves expanded by 9.1% in November to $39.92bn. The National Bank explains that this dynamic is due, on the one hand, to significant volumes received from international partners and, on the other hand, to a decrease in the volume of net currency sales by the NBU on the foreign exchange market. In particular, $6.68bn was received by the government's foreign exchange accounts with the NBU during the month from the World Bank, the US and Japan, from the placement of foreign exchange government bonds, South Korea and other partners.
Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has received $105.9bn in financial assistance as of December 10. The budget needs for 2024 were covered, the Finance Committee of Parliament reported.
The EU was the largest donor with $40.54bn, the US came in second with $29.78bn and the IMF also provided $11.37bn in assistance. Japan provided $6.57bn, Canada $5.41bn and the World Bank $5.25bn. The United Kingdom provided $2.55bn, Germany $1.69bn and other partners $2.77bn.
In November 2024, Ukraine's state budget received $6.4bn from international partners – via both loans and grants. In total, in 11 months Ukraine received $32.4bn in external financing, of which $9.2bn, or 28%, was provided in grants and does not need to be repaid.
The distribution between international grants and loans in 2024 was at 2023's level. Ukraine expects to receive about $6.9bn in December 2024 from the EU, IMF and World Bank. With this external financing, 2024 year's budget needs will be fully covered.
Ukraine will receive $22bn from frozen Russian assets in 2025. Of the $50bn planned to be provided to Ukraine from frozen Russian assets, the first tranche of $22bn will be transferred in 2025, and the remaining funds will be received in 2026-2027, said Finance Minister Sergei Marchenko. However, if additional military needs arise, funding in 2025 may be significantly increased.
Meanwhile, the Norwegian Parliament approved the extension of the Ukraine Support Programme for another three years and plans to allocate at least NOK 35bn (€3.1bn) in aid in 2025. Of this, NOK22.5bn (€1.9bn) will be allocated for
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