Page 31 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2025

Ukraine’s budget deficit is currently running at around $42bn for all of 2024, although the government says it can reduce that to some $38bn with cuts.
What happens if the US cuts off aid to Ukraine in 2025? Researchers at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which has been tracking aid to Ukraine's war effort, have calculated hypothetical scenarios for what they believe Ukraine aid could look like in 2025 – once Trump takes office in January, Statista reports.
For comparison, the researchers estimate that 2025 aid to Ukraine will total around $119bn if donations continue to follow 2024 trends. If Trump were to cut all aid next year, this would lower donations to just $85bn, leaving a gap of 34bn opposite the baseline scenario. As many European countries look towards the US for pointers on their aid strategies, the researchers propose another scenario where European aid also decreases by 50% if US aid were to decrease to zero. In this case, the release estimates a gap of $59bn in 2025 against 2024.
However, new funding avenues are opening up for Ukraine. Nato in July pledged $42bn in coordinated aid for 2025, while the G7 recently finalised a plan to lend Ukraine $48bn backed by frozen Russian central bank assets. Both of these vehicles would fill the gap of even the researchers' most negative scenario. However, many experts say that instead of just maintaining Ukraine aid levels, support will have to be raised to enable the country to
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