Page 37 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2025

Notably, wheat exports to the EU and Egypt increased by 12% and 260% respectively compared to the previous year. Additionally, Pakistan emerged as a new destination, importing 814,000 tonnes. This expansion was facilitated by a reduction in exports to Turkey, which decreased from 3.1mn tonnes to 1.1mn tonnes.
Regarding corn, Ukraine is a much more important supplier to the EU than it is for wheat. It exported approximately 29.5mn tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing year, of which 11.3mn tonnes went to the EU.
Ukraine's flour milling industry had a bad year in 2024 as the country's wheat harvest declined in both quality and quantity. Only 30% of the total wheat crop is suitable for milling, translating to approximately 6mn tonnes of food-grade grain. While this volume is sufficient to cover domestic consumption needs, estimated at 3.5mn tonnes, the production and export of flour has been affected. Wheat exports for the 2024/25 marketing year, including both milling and feed grades, are projected to reach 16.2mn tonnes. This strong export demand is driving up the demand for high-quality milling wheat domestically. Farmers are increasingly limiting the availability of food-grade wheat within Ukraine, opting instead to capitalise on favourable export markets. As a result, prices for food-grade wheat in the domestic market are expected to climb. This situation highlights the pressures faced by Ukraine's flour milling sector, which must navigate rising costs and constrained supplies. The limited availability of milling-grade wheat may force millers to seek alternatives or adjust production strategies to mitigate the impact of rising input costs on operations.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy reported record output by the Ukrainian agricultural sector in 2024. Minister of Agrarian Policy Vitaliy Koval reported that in 2024 Ukraine's agro-industrial complex achieved record production and export totals. In particular, sugar exports amounted to about 700,000 tonnes, the highest figure since 2000. It is noted that "the agricultural sector remained stable in conditions of instability."
At the same time, 6mn tonnes of soybeans were produced in Ukraine, which is the largest amount in the country's history. The average milk yield per cow reached a record 6,565 litres. According to Koval, this is 7% more than last year and is the largest annual growth in the last 10 years.
In addition, the minister said that "Ukraine is not a threat to European farmers, but a country that can strengthen the EU."
A Ukrainian Agro giant continues its expansion strategy in international markets. Agroholding MHP, the largest chicken producer in Ukraine, has submitted an offer to acquire UVESA Group, a leader in the Spanish poultry and pork production markets that was founded in 1964. MHP has said that this acquisition is another step for the company in developing in international markets and strengthening the company's position as an essential player in the EU and global food markets. Expanding its international presence aligns with the strategy of transforming MHP into an international culinary company operating in key regional markets worldwide. However, MHP's main priority remains to develop its business further in Ukraine. During the full-scale invasion, MHP has directed UAH14.8bn into business development in Ukraine. The company already has successful experience in acquiring and developing companies in the EU. In 2019, Perutnina Ptuj (Slovenia, Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina) became part of the MHP group. This experience will allow MHP to significantly contribute to Spanish agri-food sectors.
The new European Commissioner for Agriculture names the Ukrainian agricultural sector the elephant in the room regarding its impact on EU agriculture.
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