Page 4 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2025
P. 4

 Executive summary
     War outlook:
Analysts suggest that the war in Ukraine is nearing its end. Rajan Menon, a scholar at the Saltzman Institute for the Study of War and Peace at Columbia University, believes that the prospects for a peace agreement are now becoming more realistic and that the return of Donald Trump to the post of US president could significantly affect the course of the war.
There are at least four realistic scenarios for the war's end and Ukraine’s post-war security:
● Ukraine’s membership in Nato. This remains Kyiv’s primary goal, but reaching a consensus among the Alliance members will be difficult.
● A coalition of security guarantor states. However, Kyiv will insist on the US' participation in any such agreement, which is unlikely under Trump’s policies.
● Armed neutrality. This option involves Russia committing not to attack Ukraine, and Ukraine, in turn, refusing to join Nato and allow foreign troops to be stationed in the country. This may be the most realistic compromise, but also leaves Ukraine the most vulnerable. Ukraine should insist on maintaining a strong army and the right to purchase necessary weapons.
● European leadership. This means some European countries are considering the possibility of deploying their troops in post-war Ukraine.
As the year drew to an end the military outlook for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) was deteriorating with the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) making significant advances in Donbas and threatening to inflict strategically important losses on Ukraine.
Ukraine faces escalating military pressure from Russia as it continues to run short of men, money and materiel. There is a wide expectation that President-elect Donald Trump will force ceasefire talks on Ukraine after taking office in January.
President Zelenskiy has revealed the casualty figures since the Russian invasion began in 2022, with 43,000 fatalities and an additional 370,000 soldiers wounded. Unofficial estimates of Ukraine’s dead are twice as high.
About 7.5mn Ukrainians have left the country due to the war. According to Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga, about 7.5mn Ukrainians are abroad. To encourage their return, the state has created the Ministry of National Unity, which will focus on developing appropriate conditions for citizens to return home. The Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets, stated that the Russian Federation is holding more than 16,000 Ukrainian civilians captive. There is a separate list of such prisoners, but international humanitarian law and the Geneva Conventions do not provide for the exchange of civilian prisoners for military prisoners.
Russia is reportedly taking even heavier losses, but with its large population it has been able to absorb them, and continues to recruit some 30,000 new servicemen a month to keep the pressure on.
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