Page 5 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2025

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), between September and November, Russia incurred 53 military casualties for every square kilometre of territory captured in Ukrainian and Russian border areas, including the Kursk region, and it has recaptured over 200 square kilometres in November alone.
Additionally, Russia has escalated its aerial assault. Over the autumn months, it launched over 6,000 drones and missiles – three times the volume compared to the same period in 2023 – or 1,343 missiles per day.
In response, Ukraine has bolstered its missile defence capabilities, intercepting more than 40% of incoming ballistic and hypersonic missiles in November, a significant improvement compared with October’s 8% interception rate. Russia's long-range munitions are designed to deplete Ukrainian air defences as they did in January 2024, when the US ran out of money for Ukraine.
Russia has also deployed its heavy glide bombs, against which Ukraine has few defences, firing some 500 guided bombs a week.
Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) is determined to fight on until a “just peace” deal with Russian can be struck, and Zelenskiy has indicated he is willing to open talks with the Kremlin. But the two sides remain very far apart, making a deal extremely difficult.
Ukraine’s international partners continue to ratchet up sanctions in an effort to tighten the noose on Russia’s economy. While Russia has found workarounds to bypass both the oil and technology sanctions, since December 2023 the US financial sanctions have proved to be much more effective. And in December the US was considering significantly tightening oil sanctions on Russia and targeting its shadow fleet in particular.
At the same time, support for a ceasefire deal is growing in the EU as the burden of supporting Ukraine becomes increasingly painful. Most Poles favour a Ukraine peace deal with territorial concessions, according to a poll. The survey found that 55% of respondents prioritised ending the conflict over Ukraine’s territorial integrity, up from 39% in September 2024 and 26% in April 2022.
Economic outlook
US President-elect Donald Trump said that rebuilding Ukraine could take about 100 years due to the scale of destruction left by Russia's aggression. He added that in some cities not a single building remains standing. The Parliamentary Committee on Regional Development and Urban Planning reported in December that updated estimates of Ukraine's damage due to the war could exceed $600bn.
Ukraine’s economy demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2024, achieving 4% GDP growth despite challenges posed by ongoing security risks and a sharp drop in agricultural output caused by a severe summer drought. The agricultural sector's share of GDP is about 20%.
"The drivers of growth remain the transport and construction industries, processing and domestic trade," Minister Yulia Svyrydenko commented on the figures.
However, signs of a slowdown are emerging for 2025, with structural issues and fiscal tightening set to weigh on the country’s economic trajectory.
Nevertheless, damages that Ukraine has suffered through Russian aggression
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