Page 48 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2025

Private thermal power plants, including Ladyzhynska, Burshtynska, Dobrotvirska, Kurakhivska, Kryvorizka and Prydniprovska TPPs, suffered critical damage (more than 80%). About half of the high-voltage power transmission substations were damaged. Russian troops actually destroyed all oil refineries on the territory of Ukraine and a significant part of the infrastructure for storing oil and oil products.
Indirect losses of the energy sector are estimated at almost $40.1bn; the main share of this amount falls on the lost income of energy companies – $39.6bn. The rest belongs to the costs of removing rubble and carrying out dismantling work on damaged objects – $0.5bn.
Ukraine was fortuitously hooked up to the European grid the day before the war started and can import a total of 1.7 GW of power from EU allies over the winter. Work was going on frantically towards the end of 2024 to increase this 2.3 GW, but a major power supply shortfall remains.
And while power can be imported, equally crucial heat cannot. A large share of Ukrainians continue to live in Soviet-era apartment blocks that are centrally heated by the state and which will become uninhabitable in winter without central heating.
Analysts from the Dixy Group think-tank have outlined three possible scenarios for the coming months, ranging from manageable outages to blackouts that could last as long as 20 hours a day.
Baseline Scenario: moderate weather and no attacks
● Mild winter with no new attacks could cause a 2 GW shortfall due to
seasonal demand spikes.
● EU electricity imports, potentially increasing to 2 GW, would largely
cover the deficit.
● Rolling blackouts of 3-4 hours may still occur during peak evening
demand without a recovery in thermal or hydroelectric generation.
Cold Winter Scenario: increased deficit
● A colder winter could raise the electricity shortfall to 3.4-5 GW due to
higher demand and renewable energy instability.
● Severe cold spells may push peak consumption to 18.5 GW, requiring
longer and more frequent blackouts.
Worst-Case Scenario: renewed attacks
● New Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure could severely destabilise the grid.
● Emergency blackouts would be required, with potential shortages even during daylight hours.
● While extreme blackouts of 20 hours/day are unlikely, grid stability risks would be higher than last winter.
• 7.4 Renewables
Ukraine is betting on renewable energy to solve its power problem and
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