Page 8 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2025

1.0 Politics
Zelenskiy’s popularity has been falling and if the election were held this Sunday he would be beaten by Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's ambassador to the UK and former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces. Zaluzhnyi has emerged as the frontrunner by a wide margin in potential scenarios for Ukraine’s next presidential election, according to polls released on November 26 by the Social Monitoring Centre.
Zaluzhnyi garnered 27% of support when respondents were asked whom they would vote for if an election were held on November 24. Current President Volodymyr Zelenskiy followed with 16%, while former President Petro Poroshenko secured 7%. Other notable figures included Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, with 6%, and ex-Speaker of Parliament Dmytro Razumkov with 4%.
When combining first and second preferences, Zaluzhnyi emerged with 42% of overall backing, more than double Zelenskiy’s 22%. Budanov received 18%, followed by Poroshenko at 10% and Razumkov at 7%. Other prominent figures, including Yulia Tymoshenko, Sergiy Prytula and Vitaliy Klitschko, each earned less than 6%.
Zelenskiy’s term in office officially ended in May this year, but under the Ukrainian constitution elections cannot be held while martial law is in effect, so his term has been indefinitely extended until the end of the war.
The Kremlin has used this as grounds to question Zelenskiy’s legitimacy, arguing that Speaker of the Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk should have taken over. This detail has added a complication to any potential peace talks, as the Kremlin is refusing to talk to Zelenskiy, who additionally passed a law banning himself from entering into direct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The postponement of the elections has sparked a debate both domestically and internationally. Some US politicians, particularly within the Republican Party, have cited the lack of elections to question the legitimacy of continued support for Ukraine.
Zelenskiy jokingly suggested that if the Americans were willing to pay for the elections, they could be held, but the logistical problems of setting up polling stations on the front to allow serving members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to vote make elections highly unlikely.
Despite these debates, a significant portion of the Ukrainian populace supports delaying elections until the conflict concludes, prioritising national security and stability.
Ukrainian authorities have indicated that once martial law is lifted, preparing for elections would require approximately four to six months, allowing time to address logistical challenges and ensure the participation of displaced citizens and those abroad. Given that a ceasefire deal could happen in the spring this makes the first possible date for an election sometime in the summer of 2025.
Ukraine faces a potential problem with far-right groups post-war. If Zelenskiy is forced into a humiliating capitulation and significant territorial concessions, there is a chance of demonstrations or even an armed insurrection by Ukraine’s far-right groups that want to fight on.
8 Ukraine OUTLOOK 202 www.intellinews.com