Page 9 - Ukraine OUTLOOK 2025

Ukraine has faced challenges with far-right groups, particularly since the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, who were instrumental in bringing down the Yanukovych regime. These groups, such as Azov and C14, have been co-opted by the government and integrated into the AFU, but retain much of their own autonomy. They have been involved in violent activities and have connections with international extremist networks, but have also been amongst the AFU’s most effective fighting units.
Previously, far-right parties in Ukraine have struggled to gain significant electoral support. In the 2019 parliamentary elections, they secured just over 2% of the vote, failing to meet the threshold for representation. However, in a post-war tumultuous Ukraine they may fare better and increase their legitimate share of the vote. In extreme circumstances it is possible they may try to take power by force.
At the least they will destabilise the situation, provoking anti-government demonstrations and posing a threat to a smooth transition of power. Their actions have targeted various communities, including women and LGBTI rights activists, political activists and minority groups, undermining human rights and social cohesion.
The first two clusters for Ukraine’s EU membership are due to open in the spring after Poland takes over the presidency of the EU Council from Hungary. Negotiations will begin with the "Fundamentals" and "Internal Market" clusters, representing critical steps towards Ukraine’s ambitious EU membership goals.
The "Fundamentals" cluster will address core issues such as the judiciary, fundamental rights, public procurement and financial control. Meanwhile, the "Internal Market" cluster will cover consumer and health protection, free movement of goods, services and capital, as well as intellectual property law. These negotiations form part of the EU's structured approach to accession, whereby candidate countries implement EU laws and standards across various chapters. Discussions are expected to commence closer to mid-2025, coinciding with Poland's six-month presidency of the EU Council, which begins on 1 January.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has set ambitious targets for the accession process. Speaking on 17 December, he said: “During Poland’s EU presidency, we expect to open at least two clusters and six in total. Our goal is very ambitious – to open all the clusters next year.” The European Commission has acknowledged Ukraine’s progress in critical areas, including judicial reform, the rule of law and anti-corruption measures. Ukraine, which gained EU candidate status in June 2022, began formal accession talks following European Council approval in December 2023.
The EU’s Commissioner for Enlargement, Oliver Varhelyi, has suggested that Ukraine could join the bloc as early as 2029, provided it implements the necessary reforms. The accession process will remain contingent on Kyiv’s ability to align its institutions and governance with EU standards. As the EU prepares to engage in detailed negotiations, Ukraine’s swift progress could set a precedent for other candidate countries, further underlining the geopolitical importance of the enlargement process.
Ukraine has the worst demographics in the world, with both the highest mortality rate and the lowest birth rate of any country, says CIA. The population pyramid explains well why Zelensky’s administration resists American pressure to start drafting men aged 18-25. There are simply very few of these left because of economic difficulties and emigration 20 years ago. If more of them die instead of having children, Ukraine’s already terrible demographic catastrophe will reach apocalyptic proportions.
9 Ukraine OUTLOOK 202 www.intellinews.com