Page 5 - CE Outlook Regions 2022

Czechia at the October 2021 general election, as well as the replacement
of German Chancellor Angela Merkel by a centre-left coalition. The

Visegrad Group of the four Central European countries, which Orban has
weaponised in his battles against the EU, looks likely to become
increasingly moribund now, though the V4 might still occasionally unite to

fight Brussels’ policy on climate change or on migration, if there is another
wave.

Hungary faces becoming more and more isolated and irrelevant in the EU,
not least over foreign policy, where it continues to pursue closer relations

with Beijing and Moscow at a time when, following the German election,
the bloc is more and more united on the threat both countries pose.

Domestic politics

Radical right-wing parties have been a malignant cancer in Central Europe
since Orban returned to power in 2010 determined to build a

semi-authoritarian regime to entrench his rule. He was joined by Jaroslaw
Kaczynski’s Law and Justice Party (PiS), which closely followed his lead

after it won the 2015 Polish election. Both governments have formed a
united front to oppose the EU’s values, and have tried to encourage similar
political forces in neighbouring countries, the Balkans and across the EU.

Radical right-wing populism continues to be fuelled by social disparities

created by the transformation from communism, the cultural shock from
accession to the EU and its values, as well as phantom fears about
migration and other topics spread by misinformation. But this year both
radical right-wing governments face their toughest challenges yet as Orban

confronts a united opposition and the ruling Polish coalition continues to
crumble.

Both governments have struggled to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic,

partly because they have been reluctant to impose tough restrictions,
which would have been unpopular with their often elderly and rural voters,
many of whom have refused to be vaccinated because of distrust of the

state as well as online misinformation.

In Poland the vaccination rate is around 57%, the worst in Central Europe
after Slovakia, whose take-up is just 48%. Hungary’s vaccination record is
better – at 63%, roughly the same as the Czech Republic – but the country

has the second-worst death rate in the EU after Bulgaria. In the Baltic
states, vaccination rates are higher still – with Lithuania and Latvia
achieving almost 69% – but their current infection rates are among the

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